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== tripscan top ==
 
== tripscan top ==
The Russian economy has been dealing with growing headwinds this year: unruly inflation, a ballooning budget deficit – due in part to massive military spending – and shrinking revenues from oil and natural gas.
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The government has largely avoided the kinds of protests seen during the wars in Chechnya and Afghanistan, when the families of conscripted soldiers from Russia’s and the Soviet Union’s poorer regions demanded an end to the conflicts.
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[[https://tripscan101.cc/ трипскан вход]]
  
Economic growth has also slowed sharply. But the gathering economic storm is unlikely to bring President Vladimir Putin to the negotiation table anytime soon to end the war in Ukraine. Analysts say the Kremlin could weather it for many more years at the current pace of fighting and with existing Western sanctions in place.
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“I don’t think the regions would exercise any influence over sustaining the war, but the fact that you’re not seeing sort of outbursts of public protest – it relieves the pressure on Putin when he makes his decisions about what he’s going to do next,” Connolly said.
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“If you look at the economy itself, it’s not going to be that ultimate straw that breaks the camel’s back,” said Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank. “It’s not catastrophic. It’s manageable.
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What the Kremlin may be cognizant of, experts say, is concerns about a large group of war veterans re-entering society – without jobs and many with expensive medical needs – if a peace agreement is reached.
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Looking at the next three to five years, Russia could carry on fighting, she said, noting that it’s hard to make a reliable assessment beyond that.
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“It’s in Putin’s best interest to keep this war going, just from a domestic standpoint,said Kimberly Donovan, the director of the Economic Statecraft Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
  
And a contingent of exiled, anti-Putin Russian economists believes the war of attrition could continue even longer because the Kremlin’s ability to wage the war is “unimpeded by any economic constraints.
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Sanctions evasion is costly
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While the economic headwinds are manageable in the short term, the long term could be a different story. Russia has dipped heavily into its sovereign wealth fund, which a recent Atlantic Council report said creates “new trade-offs for the Kremlin,” as the cushion that once insulated the general public from the war’s costs shrinks.
  
Western sanctions have not inflicted enough pain on Russia’s energy-focused economy to change Moscow’s plans for the war, Richard Connolly at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) told CNN.
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According to the Kyiv School of Economics Institute, the value of assets that are liquid, or easily converted into cash, in Russia’s National Welfare Fund has declined by 57% since the start of the war.
  
“As long as Russia’s pumping oil and they’re selling it at a fairly reasonable price, they have enough money to just muddle along,” said the senior fellow in international security at the UK-based think tank.
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As the fund is drained, “it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Russian government can sustain its current defense expenditures without social spending cuts that are pervasive and visible to the general population,” the Atlantic Council report said.
 
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“I’m not saying it’s a really rosy picture for them, but they’ve got enough for the economy not to be a factor in Putin’s calculus when he’s thinking about the war,” Connolly added.
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รุ่นปรับปรุงเมื่อ 16:45, 23 ธันวาคม 2568

tripscan top

The government has largely avoided the kinds of protests seen during the wars in Chechnya and Afghanistan, when the families of conscripted soldiers from Russia’s and the Soviet Union’s poorer regions demanded an end to the conflicts. [трипскан вход]

“I don’t think the regions would exercise any influence over sustaining the war, but the fact that you’re not seeing sort of outbursts of public protest – it relieves the pressure on Putin when he makes his decisions about what he’s going to do next,” Connolly said. [tripskan]

What the Kremlin may be cognizant of, experts say, is concerns about a large group of war veterans re-entering society – without jobs and many with expensive medical needs – if a peace agreement is reached. [tripskan]

“It’s in Putin’s best interest to keep this war going, just from a domestic standpoint,” said Kimberly Donovan, the director of the Economic Statecraft Initiative at the Atlantic Council.

Sanctions evasion is costly While the economic headwinds are manageable in the short term, the long term could be a different story. Russia has dipped heavily into its sovereign wealth fund, which a recent Atlantic Council report said creates “new trade-offs for the Kremlin,” as the cushion that once insulated the general public from the war’s costs shrinks.

According to the Kyiv School of Economics Institute, the value of assets that are liquid, or easily converted into cash, in Russia’s National Welfare Fund has declined by 57% since the start of the war.

As the fund is drained, “it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Russian government can sustain its current defense expenditures without social spending cuts that are pervasive and visible to the general population,” the Atlantic Council report said.

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